TL;DR
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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1%, while longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth, higher unemployment and tighter credit access; the survey reflects consumer expectations, not ECB forecasts.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that euro area consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while their outlook for economic growth weakened. The monthly survey also recorded higher expected unemployment and a rise in the share of households reporting or anticipating tighter access to credit, offering policymakers a snapshot of household expectations rather than an official economic forecast.
Median perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months edged up to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and expectations five years ahead stayed at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next year increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The release did not quantify that uncertainty in the summary figures.
Consumers expected nominal income to grow by 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth also rose, to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year reached 5.3%, compared with 5.2%. These are reported expectations and perceptions, not measured future outcomes.
The outlook for activity and employment weakened. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers put the current unemployment rate they perceived at 10.6%, so the ECB described their outlook as pointing to a broadly stable labour market, despite the increase in the forward estimate.
Expected home-price growth over the coming year increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expected mortgage rates 12 months ahead were unchanged at 4.9%. The ECB also reported that the net share of households saying credit access had tightened over the previous year increased from August, as did the net share expecting tighter conditions over the year ahead. The release summary supplied no percentage-point values for those credit measures.
Households See More Credit Pressure
The results matter because consumer expectations can inform assessments of household spending, inflation risks and financial conditions. Higher anticipated inflation and spending growth may shape household decisions, while weaker growth expectations and increased concern about credit access point to pressure on confidence. The survey does not establish that these expectations will translate into actual spending, prices or borrowing.
The distribution of responses also shows that outlooks differ by income. Households in the bottom income quintile reported higher expected unemployment and mortgage rates than those in the top quintile, and expected stronger home-price growth. Such differences can help identify how households perceive economic conditions across income groups, but the survey figures do not by themselves measure the causes of those gaps.
For monetary-policy analysis, the inflation figures provide a timely read on consumer views, including the contrast between a small increase in near-term expectations and unchanged readings further ahead. The ECB says the survey complements other data sources; it is not a statement of policy decisions or the views of the bank’s decision-making bodies.
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How the September Survey Was Run
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026, so responses were collected across several weeks rather than on a single date.
The ECB uses the results for policy analysis and publishes country-level and euro area aggregates monthly. Its release says the statistics generally refer to the 2% winsorised mean, with further details in the survey’s methodological guide. The September report also makes the underlying microdata available through the CES web page. The survey’s stated age coverage is adults aged 18 and over; its reported age-group comparisons in this release distinguish respondents aged 18–34, 35–54 and 55–70.
“Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, remaining higher than the level prior to the start of the conflict in the Middle East.”
— European Central Bank, September 2026 survey release
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Limits of the Consumer Outlook
The survey records what participating consumers perceive and expect; it does not confirm what inflation, growth, unemployment, housing costs or credit conditions will actually be. The ECB’s release does not provide a causal explanation for the month-to-month changes, nor does it identify which factors drove the rise in near-term inflation expectations.
Some details are also not quantified in the summary release. These include the size of the increase in reported uncertainty about near-term inflation and the net percentages behind the credit-access measures. The survey covers 11 euro area countries, rather than every country in the currency bloc, and its findings should be read within that coverage. It remains unclear from the release how respondents’ expectations will compare with later measured outcomes.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 CES results for 27 November 2026. That release will show whether September’s shifts in near-term inflation expectations, growth outlook, unemployment expectations and credit perceptions persisted or changed in the following survey wave.
Until then, the September figures remain one input among the data sources used in the ECB’s policy analysis. Readers can consult the ECB Data Portal and the survey’s website for country-level aggregates, methodological information and the available microdata; the next survey results will provide the next monthly comparison.
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Key Questions
What did euro area consumers expect inflation to be in September 2026?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1%, from 3.0% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
Did the survey show that inflation actually rose?
No. It reported consumers’ perceptions and expectations. The figures are not measured inflation outcomes or a forecast issued by the ECB.
What did respondents say about economic growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11.0%.
When will the next survey results be published?
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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